Florida is becoming more conservative

The splitter's comeback : Trump wants to scare the Republicans

He comes back. Five weeks after leaving the White House, Donald Trump is once again stepping onto the public stage for the first time. He had staged his departure from Washington on January 20 as an indomitable rebellion against a gross disgrace for which he would take revenge. He insisted that he had been cheated out of winning the election and skipped the inauguration of Joe Biden as 46th president.

He stayed away from the impeachment process in the Senate. He had lawyers defend himself and made sinister threats from Florida against renegade Republicans such as their Senate leader, Mitch McConnell. He largely ignores various investigative proceedings.

For his comeback he has chosen the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC): an annual spectacle in Conservative America with considerable media coverage. The four-day meeting in Orlando, Florida begins this Thursday.

Trump speaks only on Sunday, but can already enjoy the fact that he has been a main topic of domestic politics for days. Just like he was used to in the past four years as Twitter president.

Trump divides. 38 percent have a positive image of him, 58 percent a negative one. With successor Joe Biden it's the other way round: 52 percent positive, 40 percent negative.

Five weeks in which Million woke up relieved without his tweets

For tens of millions of Americans, Trump remains a figure of hatred. They are relieved that they no longer wake up every morning with Trump news and would like to ignore the Florida gig. Other tens of millions, including the majority of his 74 million voters, remain under his spell. This also applies to the Republican Party.

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The media cannot escape the fascination either. From the “New York Times” to TV stations and news portals like Axios, they speculate about what he will say. They wonder what the secret of his power is now that he lost the presidency and his Twitter account.

Is he running in 2024? Is he starting a new party?

Is he announcing another presidential candidacy in Orlando in 2024? Is he making his threat to found his own party? According to polls, 46 percent of Republicans would join him; only 27 percent would stay in the traditional party.

Sober arguments against the effect of such moods are only of limited use. The party split is unlikely, says the portal FiveThirtyEight. Because then Trump would give up the conservatives' claim to national power. The US practices majority voting. The candidate with the highest number of votes wins, the opposing candidates get empty. If the Conservatives split up and ran two competing candidates against a Democrat who had the grassroots behind him, the Democrats would win the majority of the seats.

He acts like Putin, does not want to be loved, but to be feared

Trump doesn't care that his announcements seem like empty threats. Like Vladimir Putin, he acts in international politics. He also has little constructive to offer. But it has the potential of threats and destruction and uses it as a preventive and extortionist power.

Like Russia, Trump doesn't bet on being loved. He wants to be feared. Trump signals bluntly: Anyone who openly opposes me must expect that I will incite the grassroots against this person and do everything I can to prevent their nomination for office by supporting populist opponents.

The performance in Orlando as a show of power

Trump will use the appearance in Orlando for a "show of force", writes Mike Allen on Axios, citing discussions with Trump advisors. He will make it clear that he is "the natural candidate for 2024" in order to consolidate control over the party.

That doesn't automatically mean that Trump really plans to run for office in 2024. But as long as he claims the top candidacy, someone must first dare to dispute it. For the moment, that would mean provoking your own defeat with your eyesight. Republicans critical of Trump are keeping a low profile. Everyone knows: he has a full war chest.

In December and January, he asked his fans for donations on the pretext that he had to finance the legal costs for contesting the falsified election result. The majority flowed on to other accounts. His Save America Political Action Committee has $ 75 million.

The Führer cult continues: Kingmakers in the 2022 congressional election

With the money and the collected contact details of tens of millions of Trump voters, the ex-president wants to support loyal Republicans in the 2022 congressional election. With the role of the "kingmaker" in the competition for candidacies for the House of Representatives and the Senate, he wants to secure the allegiance of a large part of the party.

Trump uses Orlando as a stage to revive the leader cult. And "The Big Lie" ". Trump-critical America uses the term" big lie "to describe its claim that in truth it was he and not Joe Biden who won the election.

The response will show whether "the January 6th Movement" - a synonym for the storming of the Capitol - is still alive or broken. For now, Trump is back in business. Admittedly, not as a radiant man with national appeal, but as a figure who threatens the party into discipline.

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