Will Trump be re-elected 2
Trump re-election forecast 2020 & odds for the US election
Sports betting news
Updated Nov 9
Sports betting expert
Picture: Will Donald Trump be US President again? According to the betting odds of the betting providers, the chances of Trump being re-elected in 2020 are still fully intact. (© imago images / Starface)
Pros and cons of Trump re-election and the best bets for the 2020 US election
Will Donald Trump's era as US President soon be over or will his reign continue for four years?
In almost every Trump re-election forecast, the controversial incumbent is behind and his Democratic challenger Joe Biden is sometimes very clearly in the front.
In the fight for the White House, what speaks in favor of Trump and what against it - and what betting markets are there for the 2020 US election?
Trump re-election 2020 | Forecast & betting odds
Will Trump be re-elected? NO!
The Trump's re-election chances are not looking good - He has been behind in all polls since the summer.
If the election had been in June, according to a CNN poll, 55 percent would have voted for Biden and only 41 percent for Trump.
In October the gap even widened a little: In a survey by CNN 57 percent of potential voters said they would vote for Joe Biden. Only 41 percent for Trump.
Trump 49% (+1)
Hawkins 1% @ swayable, LV, 10 / 23-26https: //t.co/29dmg0YZRk
- Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) October 30, 2020
Self a Trump victory in Texas does not seem certain at the moment - although the second largest state since 40 is a Republican bulwark and is vital to Trump re-election.
In addition: 58 percent hold Joe Biden according to one CNNPoll for more trustworthy than Trump. Biden also has better poll ratings on health, education, and the eradication of racial inequality.
Donald Trump's time as US President should therefore expire shortly ...
This is also the opinion of the best Politk betting providers ...
5 reasons against a Trump re-election in 2020
● First: US economy is down
● Secondly: The country is divided
● Third: Falling polls
● Fourth: frustration
● Fifth: Performing in partial and congressional elections
1. The economy is broken
Economic success is always cited as the main argument for the Trump re-election forecasts.
Since the US economy collapsed completely in the wake of the corona pandemic, this naturally falls back on Trump.
In addition, there is his inadequate crisis management in the Corona crisis, which has additionally intensified the economic slump.
40 million unemployed will be considering who to vote for in the presidential election on November 3rd. Thus, the Trump re-election chance is dwindling considerably ...
Donald Trump claimed he would be "the greatest jobs president God ever created."
But the fact is he's the worst jobs president in recorded history.
We can't afford another four years of his failed leadership. pic.twitter.com/uW10KJhMsV
- Joe Biden (@JoeBiden) September 18, 2020
2. Social conflict
The USA has never been so divided as it was at that time - in rich and poor, in black and white.
The United States of America is the result of Trump policies over the past four years.
Many Americans long for peace, stability and reliability again. For a calm, empathic president and not an impulsive clunker.
Mainly because of this, a Trump re-election in 2020 will wobble more than ever ...
3. Falling polls
The approval rate of a president is one of the most reliable indicators of his re-election chances - also for the Trump re-election forecast.
Meanwhile, Trump is in everyone Polls and predictions for the 2020 US election behind Biden.
This value is particularly significant: Anyone who reaches a vote of 50 percent or more in polls in the summer before the election can expect re-election.
However, if the value falls to 45 percent or less, a candidate is placed in a high-risk zone.
Trump re-election forecast: weak approval ratings in the polls
Graphic: According to the latest polls, Democrat candidate Joe Biden would win the 2020 US election by a huge margin. (Source: Statista)
This was the case with Presidents Bush Sr., Carter and Ford, all of whom were later voted out of office.
And that was also the case with Trump in June of this year - he only got 42 percent support for his previous administration. As many as 54 percent were dissatisfied with him at this point.
These polls did not change over the summer until before the election. Biden was or is in front everywhere - sometimes very clearly. And that also in the important swing states.
Another reason that speaks against a further four-year term of office of the incumbent US president in the Trump re-election predictions:
The frustration of the population.
Miss management in the corona pandemic, unemployment, racism demos, police violence are just the biggest issues frustrating the US population this year.
It is therefore more than conceivable that those Trump voters of 2016 who are not to be counted among the “hardcore Trumpists” - that is, once moderate sympathizers - will either change camp and vote for Joe Biden due to the high level of frustration and disappointment over broken promises , or will not vote at all in protest.
Trump re-election despite sympathy disadvantage against Biden?
This could mean that Trump, who will be dependent on every vote in this tight presidential race anyway, could lose valuable votes.
Especially since, according to surveys, Biden is clearly ahead of Trump on the sympathy factor
5. Performing in partial and congressional elections
The Democrats did very well in the 2018 congressional elections, the Republicans suffered heavy losses in the House of Representatives and were in the minority for the first time since 2010.
And that at a time when there was not even a hint of Corona - and Trump could even point to economic successes.
Apparently, even then, the polarization that Trump contributed to the mobilization of democratic voters - especially among the young electorate.
This could also affect the 2020 US election on November 3rd. Because: A high voter turnout usually benefits the Democrats because their base tends to abstain from voting.
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Will Trump win re-election? YES!
At almost every Trump re-election forecast at the beginning of February, there was a lot of evidence that “The Donald” will win the 2020 US elections.
The Impeachment as a result of the Ukraine affair Trump - although he is only the third president in US history against whom impeachment proceedings have been initiated - has survived virtually unscathed ...
Even the problems that he mostly caused himself in the course of the Corona crisis and the "George Floyd case" do not harm him in the polls as one would like to believe ...
5 reasons for a Trump re-election in 2020
● First: Benefit of the office holder
● Secondly: Biden is a weak competitor
● Third: Promises & Foreign Policy
● Fourth: The US economy flourished under his reign
● Fifth: The electoral system
1. Trump is incumbent
Two historical statistics showed the likelihood of a Trump re-election in 2020 in February:
There have been 18 elections since World War II, and only three incumbent presidents have been voted out of office: Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George Bush in 1992. The incumbent was re-elected eight times.
Means: Like his successful predecessors, Trump also has the advantage of being in office.
This basically gives him the opportunity to determine topics and to satisfy his electorate - apart from that: he is of course much better known than his democratic challenger Joe Biden.
Remember, I wouldn't be President now had Obama and Biden properly done their job. The fact is, they were TERRIBLE !!!
- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 12, 2020
In addition: The Trump polls were very good at the beginning of February 2020 - almost every Trump re-election forecast at the time looked accordingly!
A poll by the polling company Gallup on February 4th showed: 49 percent of respondents are in favor of how Trump does his job.
This is the highest approval rating for the US president since he took office!
For comparison: Barack Obama only had a popularity rating of 45 percent at the time of his presidency and was later reelected.
List of US presidents since 1981
|45. Donald Trump||Republican Party||since January 20, 2017|
|44. Barack Obama||Democratic Party||2009 - 2017|
|43. George W. Bush||Republican Party||2001 - 2009|
|42. Bill Clinton||Democratic Party||1993 - 2001|
|41. George Bush||Republican Party||1989 - 1993|
|40. Ronald Reagan||Republican Party||1981 - 1989|
2. Biden is a weak competitor
Not only did the Democrats first have to find a suitable candidate to drive Trump out of the White House, they even had to first agree on a direction.
With Joe Biden and Michael Bloomberg on the one hand, and Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren on the other, the Democrats were extremely divided within the party.
Ultimately, Biden was able to prevail as a Trump challenger in the primaries.
US election 2020: Trump re-election or winner Biden?
If Biden is the right candidate for the presidencyto prevent Trump re-election in 2020?
Biden repeatedly makes sensitive mistakes in public appearances and TV debates: sometimes he mixed up places, sometimes his wife, sometimes the office he is applying for.
Dadruch also rumors of dementia arise again and again. For Trump, these are ideal targets.
It is not for nothing that he likes to refer to Biden as "Sleepy Joe", the sleepy Joe. Such attacks Trump will also ride in the three TV duelsto show Biden as - as he himself says - incapable.
That is why many of the Trump re-election predictions answer the question "Will Trump win re-election" with a yes despite everything ...
3. Promises and Foreign Policy
Despite all of his misconduct, Trump has also achieved positive things.
He has kept promises to his electorate - whether you like it or not, but it's exactly what politicians are always asking for and wanting.
There are also foreign policy achievements. Such as a peace agreement between Israel, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates. Or the withdrawal of US troops from the Middle East.
The Trump administration has also been able to restrict illegal immigration through agreements with South American states.
In addition, he is the first US president in ages who did not go to war - in contrast to his predecessor, the Nobel Peace Prize laureate Barack Obama ...
4. The US economy is flourishing
Or he shows his electorate how well he is not and what he has not achieved in his reign so far.
One thing will have to be given to him: the US economy flourished under his presidency! At least until Corona came ...
Economic growth in the USA - in 2018 it was 3.1 percent, in 2019 over 2 percent - is higher than in the EU and the unemployment rate (3.6 percent) is lower.
The growth of the gross domestic product reached almost 3 percent in 2018, one of the highest values since 2000. In 2019, economic growth was still around 2 percent.
Jobs, jobs, jobs! pic.twitter.com/o8Fr6DDePy
- The White House (@WhiteHouse) July 2, 2020
Unemployment, on the other hand, was 3.6 percent, its lowest level in half a century.
At the beginning of the year, that was actually another argument in favor of a Trump re-election forecast.
In addition: Since Trump's election, the broad US stock market index S&P 500 has so far risen by almost 47 percent - and thus even more strongly than in the corresponding period during Obama's first term in office.
If he succeeds in getting the economy up and running again over the summer and autumn by the election on November 3 and drastically lowering the unemployment rate, this could be a crucial point for Trump's re-election in 2020.
5. The electoral system
The president who wins the most electors becomes the president.
Each US state is counted individually, and whoever is ahead receives all electors from that state (“winner takes all”) - their number depends on the number of inhabitants.
For example, while California will send 55 people to the vote on December 14, 2020, Maine only has 4 votes in Electoral College, Arizona with 11, Texas with 38, Pennsylvania with 20.
US election results since 1992
|2016||Donald Trump vs. Hillary Clinton||304:227|
|2012||Barack Obama vs. Milt Romney||332:206|
|2008||Barack Obama vs. John McCain||365:173|
|2004||George W. Bush vs. John Kerry||286:251|
|2000||George W. Bush vs. Al Gore||271:266|
|1996||Bill Clinton vs. Bob Dole||379:159|
|1992||Bill Clinton vs. George Bush||370:168|
With this electoral system it is clear: For Trump, it comes down to the swing states - the strategically very valuable alternating voter states.
Whoever is ahead there will also win the 2020 US election in the end.
Four years ago, Trump won 7 out of 11 swing states - including the largest and most important such as Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.
Overall, the Republicans in this system often use their voter potential more efficiently than the Democrats.
In the 2016 election, Trump against Hillary Clinton benefited from this system to such an extent that in the end he was elected 45th US President with 304: 227 votes from the Electoral College (The Electoral College) ...
... although he received a total of more than 2 percent LESS votes!
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These betting markets will be available for the 2020 US election
The duel between Donald Trump and challenger Joe Biden electrifies the whole world until election day on November 3rd.
Because a Trump re-election prognosis is very difficult, the general rises Interest in betting on the US election 2020 enormously - and the bookmakers are well prepared for it!
In addition to the classic winner bet "Who will win the US election 2020", the best political betting providers also offer a variety of other betting options - such as:
► Who will win in State XY?
► How many states will Biden win?
► How many states will Trump win?
► Which party wins more states?
► Who will be the popular vote winner?
► How many percent does Trump get in the Popular Vote?
► How many electors will Trump win in total?
► How many voters will Biden win in total?
► How big is the winner's lead?
► Who controls the House of Representatives?
► Who controls the Senate?
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